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India smartphone prices rise 16% as market braces for double-digit decline
Our read
India’s higher smartphone prices will prop up sales value while upgrade delays and downtrading drive a sharper fall in units.
For operators
With India smartphone ASPs up 16% as shipments weaken, prioritize affordable offerings; OnePlus’s more limited 8% price increases and forecast 5% growth suggest restraint may support demand.
Watch
Monthly smartphone shipments and sell-through, especially in budget and mid-range tiers
The report,
India's smartphone market saw average selling prices rise 16% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, reaching a record USD 318 in the second quarter of 2026 as shipments weakened. OnePlus limited its price increase to 8 per cent and is forecast to grow 5 per cent YoY, while the overall market is expected to shrink by double digits.
- India average selling price, H1 2026, year over year
- 16% year-over-year
- India average selling price, Q2 2026 (record)
- USD 318
- OnePlus price increase (limited to), basis unspecified
- 8 per cent
- India smartphone market expected change
- double digits
Reported figures
From the report. Source details below
- double digits
- top five
Other figures
- under Rs 10,000
- roughly 32%
- 65% year-over-year
- above Rs 20,000
Why it matters for the brand
The combination of a shrinking market and higher prices strengthens the case for partnerships or acquisitions that add affordable products and reach.
What to track next
- Retailer inventory levels, discount depth, and the gap between wholesale shipments and consumer sales
- Component costs and whether brands implement further price increases or absorb costs
- OnePlus sell-through and market-share gains relative to its forecast 5% growth
- Financing, exchange, and promotional activity around major sales periods
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- Reforecast unit sales separately from revenue; elevated average selling prices may mask worsening demand.
- Stress-test entry-level and mid-range inventory against delayed upgrades and increased downtrading.
- Track price gaps between brands and models, and prioritize products with credible value propositions over broad price increases.
- Prepare targeted exchange and financing offers, while setting margin and inventory guardrails for promotions.
- Compare retailer sell-through with shipments to detect channel inventory buildup before committing to replenishment.
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
A 16% rise in average selling prices does not necessarily mean brands broadly raised like-for-like prices: currency effects, component costs, and a shift toward premium models could explain much of the change. With shipments weakening, higher ASPs may reflect consumers buying fewer but more expensive phones rather than healthy demand. The double-digit market decline is a forecast, while OnePlus's 5% growth is also reportedly a forecast and could reflect share gains in a shrinking market.